War in Ukraine directly effects Iraq  

2022-02-22 13:31:03


	NEWS CENTER - The war scenarios in Ukraine affect the Iraqi calculations of the governments. Turkey, which took the paramilitary groups into the field to get NATO approval, focuses on Qandil with Iraqi gas and oil through the Barzani family.

	 

	Russia's "occupation" plans for Ukraine, initiated under the leadership of the United States (USA) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), determine the Middle East agenda, in which the same actors are involved. While war bells are ringing in Ukraine, the status quo states of the region are trying to determine their position. While there was intense diplomacy traffic in the region, Turkey took  action to get its share from the possible results. The recent meeting of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with the officials of Qatar, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, Iraq and the Federated Kurdistan Region, as well as the meeting of MIT Undersecretary Hakan Fidan with the Syrian regime intelligence are discussed within this framework.

	 

	ARE THE MEETINGS A PREPARATION OF AN ATTACK AGAINST QANDIL?

	 

	Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar met the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Politburo members in the city of Duhok, the Peshmerga Ministry and the Governor of Duhok, right after the "morale and motivation" meeting he held with the commanders who took part in the operation in Şırnak on April 23, 2021, due to the losses in the attacks on the Metina, Avaşîn and Zap regions. After Akar, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and the KDP administration, and AKP President Erdoğan met with Federated Kurdistan Regional President Neçîrvan Barzani in Ankara. In all these meetings, it is stated that the launch of a larger operation and preparations for a comprehensive attack against Kandil were made in order to overcome the military crisis in the regions of Metina, Avaşîn and Zap. It was stated that these meetings were a search for the inclusion of the Federal Kurdistan Regional government in the comprehensive operation being prepared.

	 

	TURKEY'S UKRAINE PLANS

	 

	Turkey, which is trying to get the permission of the US-led western bloc to push the button in its plan, is preparing to send forces to the Donbass region of Ukraine for this. According to the information obtained; In the last two weeks, a paramilitary group of 1,500 people, consisting of al-Nusra and the Syrian National Army (SMO) groups in Afrin, has begun preparations to be sent to the Donbass region of Ukraine to fight against Russia. In fact, upon the request of Turkey, one of the leaders of Jabhat Al Nusra, Ebu Beşir Errawi, who organized the organization of sending paramilitary groups to Libya, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and the Federated Kurdistan Region. As in the case of Libya, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and the Federated Kurdistan Region, the 150-person SMO group, which was previously held in Kilis and was prepared, was sent to Ukraine by him.

	 

	RUSSIA AND IRAN'S COURT MOVE

	 

	Receiving information from Turkey to send a group to Ukraine against it, Russia demanded that Iran, which is an ally in Syria and influential on the Iraqi central government, removes the files about oil and gas sold to Turkey from the shelves. The Iraqi Federal Court's decision that the independent sale of the oil and gas of the Federated Kurdistan Region is illegal may delay or completely eliminate Turkey's implementation of a comprehensive attack plan against Qandil in all these negotiations. However, there are also evaluations that Turkey will try to overcome the oil and gas crisis through its refineries in the region after it successfully carries out this attack plan despite all the penal sanctions that the court will impose.

	 

	THERE IS A MAJOR CRISIS AHEAD OF TURKEY

	 

	Turkey's natural gas agreements with Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan expired at the end of 2021. Only the agreement with Azerbaijan was renewed. According to experts; a major crisis awaits Turkey if the agreements are not renewed and there are no new alternatives. It is stated that the most suitable alternative for Turkey to purchase gas is natural gas in the Federated Kurdistan Region. If this happens, Turkey will buy gas at a 23 percent lower price than Iran's natural gas.

	 

	THE ROLE OF THE BARZANI FAMILY

	 

	The AKP-MHP government, which continues its attacks against the region within the scope of the concept of annihilation against the Kurds and aims to "clear the PKK from the region", receives the support of the KDP and the Barzani family, who are in power, in this plan. It is evaluated that this support is for the Iraqi Presidential elections of the trio of KDP Chairman Mesut Barzani, Federated Kurdistan Regional President Nêçîrvan Barzani and Federated Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Mesrur Barzani.

	 

	NATURAL GAS WELL IN THE PUK ZONE

	 

	Within the framework of these plans, 60 percent of the natural gas wells and refineries in the Federated Kurdistan Region are located in the "Green" area under the control of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and 40 percent in the "Yellow" area under the control of the KDP. While 17 trillion 246 billion cubic feet of gas is extracted annually from Kormor, Çemçemal, Miran and Pelkane gas refineries located in the “Green” area, 11 trillion 160 billion cubic feet of gas is extracted at the Binêbawê, Xormale, Şêxan and Pîrmam refineries located in the “Yellow” area.

	 

	 

	MA / Erdogan Altan